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Will we be issuing a Warning for the upcoming rain/flood potential?

Writer's picture: iwmet service iwmet service


Warning now issued




Over the coming days we are likely to see some very interesting weather conditions from a meteorological point of view, but perhaps not so much for those of you that will be spending time outdoors!


The UK Met Office have already issued a warning for large rainfall totals, but as many of our followers are aware our warnings are often quite different than the UK Met Office with them and ourselves sometimes issuing for different times, different conditions and even occasionally with opposing forecasts (one of us issues a warning, the other doesn't), so it must be noted that even though we have no direct association with them, we do have friends that work for them, and of course conversations often take place! So lets take a look at a few of the model outputs, or at least how it looks based on the latest data (this will likely change)

Wind convergence

Daytime showers (rainfall rates per hour)

Persistent rain (rainfall rates per hour)
Thursday night (rainfall rates per hour)

Accumulated Rainfall totals from Midday tomorrow until Midnight on Thursday

Sunday Rainfall rates per hour

Tomorrow (Wednesday) It looks as though we will see some showers developing with most of the models showing some potentially heavy but very localised downpours in a few places, and whilst not everywhere will see these, there is a chance of seeing some weak funnels, tornadoes or waterspouts developing due to the light surface winds along with localised convergence (where winds move towards each other). We may even see some localised flash flooding where any downpours linger, but in general it wont be until Thursday when we start to see some more persistent heavy rain moving in.


Later on Thursday it seems that some very heavy spells of rain will develop, possibly leading to some very high rainfall totals, although there is also a chance that the main rain area could be just to our north or south. You can see that on the Thursday evening/night chart the rainfall area is very narrow, so it wouldn't take much for it to miss us, however it also means that getting stuck under such a band of rain could lead to huge rainfall totals in excess of 50mm in places


As we move into Friday it seems likely that the heaviest rain will be to our north, although over the weekend we may see further large rainfall totals as more areas of rain move up from the south.


So please keep checking in with us over the coming days as there will be more frequent updates as things develop, and we are also likely to issue a warning tomorrow when we have a little more detail on the smaller scale and more localised conditions.


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