Morning update - Fine and warm today, thundery rain overnight, showers then fine tomorrow

TODAY

A fine, dry day, feeling very warm across the Island with some good sunny spells. There will be occasional patches of cloud developing and moving through though, especially at first and again later.

Temperature: 22–23°C along western and southern coasts, but 24–26°C across central, northern and eastern parts. Perhaps closer to 22–23°C right on the coast through Sandown Bay, Whitecliff Bay and Bembridge

Wind: Variable 0–3 mph at first, becoming south to southeast 8–16 mph. Winds will be rather variable around the coasts though, with more of a southwesterly wind along western and southern parts, while eastern areas see a more southerly wind. Through the Solent winds will be more westerly, with these winds converging somewhere towards the northeast of the Island

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TONIGHT

A warm night across the Island in general. It will start off dry with a few clear spells, although cloud will already be increasing somewhat from the south. During the second half of the night an area of showery rain is expected to push up from the south, potentially becoming very heavy locally and thundery. There is a higher chance of thunder compared with last night, although considerable uncertainty remains over what stage of its development the thundery activity will be in as it reaches us. If it is late in its life cycle we may simply see some rain with little in the way of thunder, whereas any newly developing activity would bring a much greater chance of thundery conditions. So this is certainly one to watch, but some quite heavy showery rain looks possible for a time, with the risk of thunder accompanying it.

Temperature: 19–21°C, perhaps falling closer to 17–19°C where rainfall occurs

Wind: East to northeast 5–11 mph at first, increasing to 12–22 mph later

Rainfall: High uncertainty, anywhere from 0 mm to 10–15 mm if we take a direct hit from some of the heavier thundery activity

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TOMORROW

There is a chance of a few thundery showers still lingering at first during the morning, although these should begin to clear away during the early to mid-morning. This will leave mostly dry conditions with sunny spells developing, although still with some patches of cloud around. There remains some uncertainty over exactly how quickly the showers will clear, with the possibility they could linger a little longer, but things should generally brighten up as the morning goes on.

Temperature: 20–21°C in the south and west, but 22–23°C across central, northern and eastern parts

Wind: East 12–19 mph to start the day, becoming southwest 15–27 mph later in the afternoon

Rainfall: High uncertainty once again, generally 1–5 mm, although some places may see nothing at all

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