FINAL UPDATE ON TOMORROW’S STORM SYSTEM 💨
Tonight and tomorrow: two spells of very strong winds expected
The latest charts are now coming into closer agreement over tonight and tomorrow’s storm system, with the centre of the low expected to track through the English Channel, close to or just south of the Island.
Two spells of very strong winds are expected, with a temporary lull between them as the centre passes nearby. Our wind warning remains in place.
Tonight and the early hours
Showery rain will continue to move through this evening, accompanied by increasingly gusty winds. The strongest winds are expected during the early hours, blowing from the south or southeast.
Gusts could reach 50–60 mph in the most exposed locations, particularly along southern and western coasts, other stretches of coastline facing the wind, and over high ground. There are still some differences between the models over the peak strength, with some showing gusts nearer 65–70 mph.
Tomorrow morning: a temporary lull
As the centre of the low passes close to or just south of us, the winds are expected to ease for a time, potentially becoming much lighter by mid-morning.
This easing will be temporary, with another spell of very strong winds following as the system moves away.
One model also shows a swathe of stronger winds passing very close to our south and southeast during the early morning. A shift of just 20–30 miles further north could bring some of those winds onto the Island’s coast. This currently looks unlikely, but it remains something we will be watching closely.
Late morning and afternoon: winds strengthen again
By late morning or early afternoon, the winds will turn west-northwest to northwest and strengthen sharply once again.
Exposed coasts and high ground could see gusts of 60–70 mph, with very gusty conditions continuing through the afternoon and into the evening.
West-northwesterly winds of this strength are less common here, and there is a risk of branches coming down, with the possibility of a few fallen trees.
Our wind warning remains in place
The latest guidance continues to support our warning, with coastal areas particularly exposed during both spells of strong winds. The risk becomes more widespread across the Island during the late-morning and afternoon spell.
The precise track of the low will determine the strength of the winds and the length of the lull between the two windier periods. We will continue to monitor the system and provide further updates if anything changes.
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